This article examines the problem of analyzing and forecasting the states of the political system based on John Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework. Political security is defined as a state of stability in political activity, the boundaries of which are determined by stable and turbulent regimes. To model the interaction among the problem stream, policy stream, and politics stream, the application of fuzzy logic, catastrophe theory, and percolation theory is proposed. Each of these methods enables the analysis of different aspects of political dynamics. Fuzzy logic allows for the modeling of decision-making processes under conditions of uncertainty; catastrophe theory facilitates the investigation of the political state at bifurcation points (policy windows); and percolation theory enables the study of phase transitions within the political system. Corresponding mathematical models are developed, and a comparative analysis of these models is conducted. The article also introduces the concepts of “political temperature” and “system fatigue,” outlining directions for further research.
This article examines the problem of analyzing and forecasting the states of the political system based on John Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework. Political security is defined as a state of stability in political activity, the boundaries of which are determined by stable and turbulent regimes. To model the interaction among the problem stream, policy stream, and politics stream, the application of fuzzy logic, catastrophe theory, and percolation theory is proposed. Each of these methods enables the analysis of different aspects of political dynamics. Fuzzy logic allows for the modeling of decision-making processes under conditions of uncertainty; catastrophe theory facilitates the investigation of the political state at bifurcation points (policy windows); and percolation theory enables the study of phase transitions within the political system. Corresponding mathematical models are developed, and a comparative analysis of these models is conducted. The article also introduces the concepts of “political temperature” and “system fatigue,” outlining directions for further research.